By combining epidemiology and informatics, it is possible to assess scenarios and predict epidemic evolutions, thus allowing policy makers and health institutions to better manage health emergencies. This is the core concept of GLEAM, an online informatics tool that simulates the unfolding of epidemics across the world.
GLEAM combines data from different sources – distribution of the world-wide population, their daily interactions and journeys, international air traffic – with models of infection dynamics, in order to simulate and possibly predict the spreading pattern of infectious diseases epidemics. This approach has been validated against historical epidemic outbreaks including the SARS epidemic in 2002 and proved to be effective when used to produce real time forecast of the spatial and temporal evolution of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
The software system is publicly available and is the result of the combined efforts of a cooperation between some institutions in Italy, France and USA. At the moment, the project is hosted by the Northeastern University in Boston and the Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) in Turin, and is partially founded by the National Institute of Health and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Forecasting epidemic: GLEAM
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Europe votes on the new air quality directive
The European Parliament's vote (and subsequently the Council of Europe's) on the new European Directive on air quality is expected for September 13. This directive updates the allowed atmospheric pollutant limits, bringing them closer to those established by the WHO in 2021. Resistance to the new objectives, mainly coming from the industrial world and established economic interests in certain regions, makes the outcome of the vote uncertain. However, there are no serious scientific or political reasons to oppose or attempt to dilute the more ambitious limits proposed by the new directive.
Image credits: JC Gellidon/Unsplash
The new European Directive on air quality, currently under discussion in the European Parliament, updates the concentration limits of major air pollutants, bringing them closer to those set by the new guidelines of the World Health Organization (2021). The outcome of the vote, scheduled for September 13, is uncertain.