By combining epidemiology and informatics, it is possible to assess scenarios and predict epidemic evolutions, thus allowing policy makers and health institutions to better manage health emergencies. This is the core concept of GLEAM, an online informatics tool that simulates the unfolding of epidemics across the world.
GLEAM combines data from different sources – distribution of the world-wide population, their daily interactions and journeys, international air traffic – with models of infection dynamics, in order to simulate and possibly predict the spreading pattern of infectious diseases epidemics. This approach has been validated against historical epidemic outbreaks including the SARS epidemic in 2002 and proved to be effective when used to produce real time forecast of the spatial and temporal evolution of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
The software system is publicly available and is the result of the combined efforts of a cooperation between some institutions in Italy, France and USA. At the moment, the project is hosted by the Northeastern University in Boston and the Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) in Turin, and is partially founded by the National Institute of Health and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Forecasting epidemic: GLEAM
Primary tabs
Autori:
Sezioni:
Dossier:
Indice:
Epidemiology
prossimo articolo
Healthy Lungs for Life: lung health starts with clean air
Gathering support for policies that promote clean air, with particular attention to the EU Directive on air quality being discussed in the coming days: this is the goal of the Healthy Lungs for Life campaign, this year focused on the importance of combating air pollution.
According to the World Health Organization, air pollution is the fourth leading cause of disease and premature death worldwide (after hypertension, smoking, and malnutrition). It is estimated that due to pollution, the European population loses an average of almost one year of life.