By combining epidemiology and informatics, it is possible to assess scenarios and predict epidemic evolutions, thus allowing policy makers and health institutions to better manage health emergencies. This is the core concept of GLEAM, an online informatics tool that simulates the unfolding of epidemics across the world.
GLEAM combines data from different sources – distribution of the world-wide population, their daily interactions and journeys, international air traffic – with models of infection dynamics, in order to simulate and possibly predict the spreading pattern of infectious diseases epidemics. This approach has been validated against historical epidemic outbreaks including the SARS epidemic in 2002 and proved to be effective when used to produce real time forecast of the spatial and temporal evolution of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
The software system is publicly available and is the result of the combined efforts of a cooperation between some institutions in Italy, France and USA. At the moment, the project is hosted by the Northeastern University in Boston and the Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) in Turin, and is partially founded by the National Institute of Health and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Forecasting epidemic: GLEAM
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Epidemiology
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Cuba: Now it’s time to go
The President of the United States has already announced that his next target will be Cuba, one way or another. The island has in any case been subjected to a fierce embargo for 64 years, with dramatic consequences for the health of its inhabitants. The tightening of recent times is making it difficult to maintain even those capacities to produce drugs and vaccines that have so far upheld the right to health. Until when?
There is an ongoing emergency; has been going on for a long time and therefore the situation is very serious and uncertain and there is always someone who tries to take advantage of it, even in an unfair way.