By combining epidemiology and informatics, it is possible to assess scenarios and predict epidemic evolutions, thus allowing policy makers and health institutions to better manage health emergencies. This is the core concept of GLEAM, an online informatics tool that simulates the unfolding of epidemics across the world.
GLEAM combines data from different sources – distribution of the world-wide population, their daily interactions and journeys, international air traffic – with models of infection dynamics, in order to simulate and possibly predict the spreading pattern of infectious diseases epidemics. This approach has been validated against historical epidemic outbreaks including the SARS epidemic in 2002 and proved to be effective when used to produce real time forecast of the spatial and temporal evolution of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
The software system is publicly available and is the result of the combined efforts of a cooperation between some institutions in Italy, France and USA. At the moment, the project is hosted by the Northeastern University in Boston and the Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) in Turin, and is partially founded by the National Institute of Health and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Forecasting epidemic: GLEAM
Primary tabs
Autori:
Sezioni:
Dossier:
Indice:
Epidemiology
prossimo articolo
Karen Hallberg, on peace and science
In a world marked by wars and global crises, the new Secretary General of Pugwash tells us about the challenges of disarmament and the value of scientific dialogue for peace (photo: Karen Hallberg, source Wikipedia).
Pugwash is the name of a Canadian fishing village and a commitment to peace. In July 1957, at the height of the Cold War, twenty-two scientists gathered here for the first Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs. The group was led by the mathematician and philosopher Bertrand Russell, who, two years earlier on 9 July 1955, presented the Russell and Einstein Manifesto in London's Caxton Hall. In this manifesto, the philosopher and physicist (who died in April but had signed it) called on the world to renounce war.