By combining epidemiology and informatics, it is possible to assess scenarios and predict epidemic evolutions, thus allowing policy makers and health institutions to better manage health emergencies. This is the core concept of GLEAM, an online informatics tool that simulates the unfolding of epidemics across the world.
GLEAM combines data from different sources – distribution of the world-wide population, their daily interactions and journeys, international air traffic – with models of infection dynamics, in order to simulate and possibly predict the spreading pattern of infectious diseases epidemics. This approach has been validated against historical epidemic outbreaks including the SARS epidemic in 2002 and proved to be effective when used to produce real time forecast of the spatial and temporal evolution of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
The software system is publicly available and is the result of the combined efforts of a cooperation between some institutions in Italy, France and USA. At the moment, the project is hosted by the Northeastern University in Boston and the Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) in Turin, and is partially founded by the National Institute of Health and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Forecasting epidemic: GLEAM
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No, the wildfires in California are not "ideological"
Rampini from the Corriere includes a series of errors and inaccuracies to support the unbearable rhetoric of “ideology” in the ecological transition and even in climate physics. Contrary to what he claims, the probability and intensity of wildfires are increasing due to the very "human" climate changes. Of course, solutions also involve proper management of vegetation and infrastructure, but this should not overshadow the goal of achieving net-zero emissions. Especially after 2024, which for the first time surpassed an average temperature of 1.5°C.
This topic is also addressed in the guide Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change: A Guide for Journalists, which the Climate Media Center Italia has translated into Italian from the original by World Weather Attribution.
Image: California wildfires photographed by the European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-3 imagery
Federico Rampini continues his battle against the “ideologies” of ecological transition.