By combining epidemiology and informatics, it is possible to assess scenarios and predict epidemic evolutions, thus allowing policy makers and health institutions to better manage health emergencies. This is the core concept of GLEAM, an online informatics tool that simulates the unfolding of epidemics across the world.
GLEAM combines data from different sources – distribution of the world-wide population, their daily interactions and journeys, international air traffic – with models of infection dynamics, in order to simulate and possibly predict the spreading pattern of infectious diseases epidemics. This approach has been validated against historical epidemic outbreaks including the SARS epidemic in 2002 and proved to be effective when used to produce real time forecast of the spatial and temporal evolution of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
The software system is publicly available and is the result of the combined efforts of a cooperation between some institutions in Italy, France and USA. At the moment, the project is hosted by the Northeastern University in Boston and the Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) in Turin, and is partially founded by the National Institute of Health and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Forecasting epidemic: GLEAM
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The embarrassing Covid
There's a certain discomfort in having to talk about Covid-19 again, as demanded by the increase in cases that is also recorded in Italy. The reason, writes epidemiologist Stefania Salmaso, might perhaps be identified in the lack of a transparent process that allows understanding on what basis the health authority formulates recommendations, leading to reliance on pundits.
“An embarrassing Covid-19”: It could be the title of a short story by Calvino or a rhyme by Rodari, but it's what we're witnessing these days. The increasing frequency of SARS-CoV-2 infections in various areas of the world, including Italy, has forced mainstream media to address it again. However, it's often discussed with a sort of embarrassment and only for the sake of reporting. When discussing possible countermeasures, the discomfort becomes even more apparent.