By combining epidemiology and informatics, it is possible to assess scenarios and predict epidemic evolutions, thus allowing policy makers and health institutions to better manage health emergencies. This is the core concept of GLEAM, an online informatics tool that simulates the unfolding of epidemics across the world.
GLEAM combines data from different sources – distribution of the world-wide population, their daily interactions and journeys, international air traffic – with models of infection dynamics, in order to simulate and possibly predict the spreading pattern of infectious diseases epidemics. This approach has been validated against historical epidemic outbreaks including the SARS epidemic in 2002 and proved to be effective when used to produce real time forecast of the spatial and temporal evolution of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
The software system is publicly available and is the result of the combined efforts of a cooperation between some institutions in Italy, France and USA. At the moment, the project is hosted by the Northeastern University in Boston and the Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) in Turin, and is partially founded by the National Institute of Health and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Forecasting epidemic: GLEAM
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COP28: It's Up to the Oil Tycoon to Say Goodbye to Fossils
di Luca Carra
Source: UNFCCC.
It had to be an oil tycoon to say goodbye to fossils, like the smoker extinguishing his last cigarette and the alcoholic giving up the Negroni. And so it was: for the first time at a United Nations climate change Conference of the Parties, we declare in black and white our desire to abandon coal, gas, and oil. COP28 was held in Dubai, one of the countries most dependent on fossil fuels, and was coordinated by the extremely capable Sultan al-Jaber, president of the largest oil company, ADNOC.